U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–1 Club America: Result & Stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Club America

M. Rodríguez 51'

D. Lainez 21'

12/7/2018

Liga MX · Apertura - Semi-finalsEstadio Olimpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas38%

×Draw26%

Club America36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchClub America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.31

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.37

Club America

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.62

creates per match

1.26

1.37

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.62

Club America

1.26

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.37

Club America

1.11

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more

Club America-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Club America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

64%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Club America

74%

Draw or Club America

62%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

18%

Club America wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

75%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

40%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

16%

Club America 1+ goals

73%

Club America 2+ goals

38%

Club America 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

52%

Club America (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Club America away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Club America defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.37

Club America attack 1.26 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

38%

level

26%

Club America scores more

36%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Marchesín

Club America · G

7.7

Match Events

21'

D. Lainez↳ P. Aguilar

51'

M. Rodríguez↳ A. Mozo

58'

Oribe Peralta

59'

A. Ibarra← O. Peralta

61'

David Cabrera

62'

A. Mendoza← I. Malcorra

71'

A. Ibargüen← D. Lainez

73'

Luis Quintana

79'

J. Iturbe← F. Mora

84'

M. Alustiza← M. Rodríguez

89'

H. Martín← R. Martínez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Club

Overview

65%Possession35%

17Total Shots10

4Corners0

13Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots10

7On Target5

8Off Target3

2Blocked2

9Inside Box8

8Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

454Total Passes232

378Accurate Passes167

83%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1