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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Preview
23:00
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
7/18/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 1
Big match
39%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
model favours
39%27%35%

CF Pachuca score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas39%
×Draw27%
CF Pachuca35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.32
CF Pachuca
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.29
CF Pachuca
1.00

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.46
CF Pachuca
1.35

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.71scores more
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
65%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or CF Pachuca
73%
Draw or CF Pachuca
61%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
17%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
73%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
38%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
15%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
71%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
35%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
53%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 7 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.29 + CF Pachuca defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

CF Pachuca attack 1.00 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
39%
level
27%
CF Pachuca scores more
35%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • U.N.A.M. - Pumas score first in only 30% of matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1 vs CF Pachuca 4
  • U.N.A.M. - Pumas outscore their xG (1.7 vs 1.2 expected)
  • CF Pachuca outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Balanced
CF Pachuca
Defensively solid
51%Possession51%
84%Pass accuracy82%
10.7ShotsBiggest gap15.5
1.24xG1.13
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
U.N.A.M. - PumasCF Pachuca

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0
Draws
3
CF Pachuca
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 40%
1–00–12–01–32–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Pumas
LWLDW
Pachuca
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: U.N.A.M. - Pumas host CF Pachuca

July 18, 2026: U.N.A.M. - Pumas take on CF Pachuca in Liga MX. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.