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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2018

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
C. Huerta 51' (pen)
U. Rivas 45+6'
7/21/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Olímpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas37%
×Draw27%
CF Pachuca36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.25
CF Pachuca
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.29
CF Pachuca
1.00

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.46
CF Pachuca
1.20

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.71scores more
CF Pachuca+0.50scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
64%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or CF Pachuca
73%
Draw or CF Pachuca
63%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
16%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
71%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
36%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
13%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
71%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
35%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
51%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 7 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.29 + CF Pachuca defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

CF Pachuca attack 1.00 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
37%
level
27%
CF Pachuca scores more
36%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
C. HuertaU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · M
7.9

Match Events

9'
P. Quispe← L. Suárez
41'
Pedro Pedraza
45+4'
Jorge Ruvalcaba
45+7'
Gustavo Cabral
45+4'
Oussama Idrissi
45+6'
U. Rivas↳ J. Ruvalcaba
46'
Pablo Monroy
46'
O. González← O. Idrissi
48'
Rogelio Funes MoriPenalty confirmed
51'
C. HuertaPenalty
54'
Nelson Deossa
55'
S. Rondón← Borja Bastón
55'
A. González← P. Pedraza
58'
Ulises Rivas
61'
J. Rivas← P. Bennevendo
61'
R. López← J. Ruvalcaba
65'
César Huerta
70'
G. Martínez← R. Funes Mori
70'
S. Trigos← J. Caicedo
74'
S. de los Ríos← G. Álvarez
74'
S. Aguayo← A. Micolta
80'
Rubén Duarte
83'
Arturo González

Possession

38%U.N.A.M.

Shots

9U.N.A.M.

Pass accuracy

46%U.N.A.M.

Statistics

U.N.A.M.CF
Overview
38%Possession62%
9Total Shots12
4Corners6
9Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots12
5On Target2
2Off Target5
2Blocked5
6Inside Box8
3Outside Box4
Passing
38%Possession62%
302Total Passes477
214Accurate Passes393
71%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls11
5Yellow Cards5
0Offsides4

Match Recap: U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs CF Pachuca

U.N.A.M. - Pumas beat CF Pachuca 2-0 in Liga MX on July 21, 2024.

Goals: U. Rivas (45+6'), C. Huerta (51' pen).

CF Pachuca controlled possession (62%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Universitario in D.F..