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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Atletico San Luis — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Preview
18:00
Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis
9/27/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 10
Big match
49%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
model favours
49%24%26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas score first in only 29% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas49%
×Draw24%
Atletico San Luis26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.66
Atletico San Luis
1.14

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 46% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 124 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.59
Atletico San Luis
1.19

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.09
Atletico San Luis
1.73

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par
Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Atletico San Luis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
74%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Atletico San Luis
76%
Draw or Atletico San Luis
51%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
26%
Atletico San Luis wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
81%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
49%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
23%
Atletico San Luis 1+ goals
68%
Atletico San Luis 2+ goals
32%
Atletico San Luis 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
65%
Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Atletico San Luis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.73 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.66

Atletico San Luis attack 1.19 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
49%
level
24%
Atletico San Luis scores more
26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • U.N.A.M. - Pumas sit 1, Atletico San Luis 14 in the table
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Balanced
Atletico San Luis
Balanced
51%Possession48%
82%Pass accuracy82%
12.4Shots11.8
1.42xGBiggest gap1.30
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
U.N.A.M. - PumasAtletico San Luis

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0
Draws
5
Atletico San Luis
Avg goals: 3.5BTTS: 60%
2–00–13–23–01–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Pumas
LLWLD
Luis
LWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U.N.A.M. - Pumas face Atletico San Luis (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with U.N.A.M. - Pumas hosting Atletico San Luis. Match starts September 27, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.