U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–3 Atletico San Luis

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Atletico San Luis

S. Saucedo 39'

A. Vombergar 82'

G. Berterame 32'

Unai Bilbao 6'

8/8/2021

Liga MX · Apertura - 3Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas50%

×Draw24%

Atletico San Luis26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchAtletico San Luis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.14

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.67

Atletico San Luis

1.14

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 46% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 123 away

1.59

creates per match

1.19

1.09

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.59

Atletico San Luis

1.19

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.09

Atletico San Luis

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Atletico San Luis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

74%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Atletico San Luis

76%

Draw or Atletico San Luis

50%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

26%

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

81%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

50%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

23%

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

68%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

32%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

66%

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Atletico San Luis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.74 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.67

Atletico San Luis attack 1.19 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

50%

level

24%

Atletico San Luis scores more

26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Unai Bilbao

Atletico San Luis · D

8.3

Match Events

6'

Unai Bilbao

9'

Alan Mozo

32'

G. Berterame↳ A. Bareiro

39'

S. Saucedo↳ A. Mozo

46'

F. Álvarez← E. Lira

49'

J. Castro← J. Sanabria

59'

G. Torres← Rogério

59'

L. López← C. Battocchio

75'

Leonel López

76'

A. Vombergar← A. Bareiro

78'

Amaury García← Higor

78'

M. García← S. Saucedo

82'

A. Vombergar↳ R. Chávez

88'

José Galindo

89'

J. Duque← R. Chávez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Atletico

Overview

63%Possession37%

11Total Shots9

5Corners0

15Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots9

3On Target6

5Off Target1

3Blocked2

9Inside Box4

2Outside Box5

Passing

63%Possession37%

424Total Passes260

328Accurate Passes169

77%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls13

3Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2