U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3–0 Atletico San Luis

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico San Luis

M. Quiroga 84' (OG)

J. Dinenno 53'

J. Vigón 14'

9/13/2020

Liga MX · Apertura - 10Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas50%

×Draw24%

Atletico San Luis26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchAtletico San Luis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.14

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.67

Atletico San Luis

1.14

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 46% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 123 away

1.59

creates per match

1.19

1.09

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.59

Atletico San Luis

1.19

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.09

Atletico San Luis

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Atletico San Luis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

74%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Atletico San Luis

76%

Draw or Atletico San Luis

50%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

26%

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

81%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

50%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

23%

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

68%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

32%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

66%

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Atletico San Luis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.74 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.67

Atletico San Luis attack 1.19 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

50%

level

24%

Atletico San Luis scores more

26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Talavera

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · G

8.2

Match Events

14'

J. Vigón

39'

D. Escalante← R. González

46'

A. Julio← Cadete

53'

58'

63'

65'

71'

72'

83'

F. Waller← C. Gutiérrez

83'

Amaury García← A. Iniestra

84'

M. QuirogaOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Atletico

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots14

3Corners2

19Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots14

6On Target5

1Off Target7

0Blocked2

3Inside Box10

4Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

314Total Passes322

225Accurate Passes240

72%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides4