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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Atlas — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlas
Atlas
7/25/2021Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas48%
×Draw24%
Atlas28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.69
Atlas
1.22

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.62
Atlas
1.06

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.37
Atlas
1.75

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more
Atlas+0.19scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Atlas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
72%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Atlas
76%
Draw or Atlas
52%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
26%
Atlas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
82%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
50%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
24%
Atlas 1+ goals
70%
Atlas 2+ goals
34%
Atlas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
64%
Atlas (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Atlas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Atlas defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.69

Atlas attack 1.06 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
48%
level
24%
Atlas scores more
28%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
J. GonzálezU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · G
8.5

Match Events

46'
W. Corozo← Amaury García
46'
E. Lira← Higor
61'
Rogério← F. Álvarez
74'
C. Trejo← J. Herrera
74'
F. Troyansky← J. Furch
77'
G. Torres← S. Saucedo
78'
M. García← L. López
87'
G. Maroni← J. Quiñones
90+3'
Jairo Torres
90+2'
E. Zaldivar← Á. Márquez

Possession

43%U.N.A.M.

Shots

10U.N.A.M.

Pass accuracy

47%U.N.A.M.

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Atlas
Overview
43%Possession57%
10Total Shots18
2Corners7
11Fouls9
Shots
10Total Shots18
3On Target5
7Off Target8
0Blocked5
5Inside Box10
5Outside Box8
Passing
43%Possession57%
322Total Passes406
221Accurate Passes318
69%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides4

Liga MX: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0–0 Atlas

U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Atlas drew 0-0 in Liga MX on July 25, 2021.

Atlas controlled possession (57%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Universitario in D.F..