U.N.A.M. - Pumas 5–1 Atlas: Result & Stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atlas

C. Vargas 90+4' (OG)

A. Iniestra 88'

N. Freire 79'

F. Mora 70'

C. González 11'

J. Isijara 27'

10/30/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas46%

×Draw25%

Atlas29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchAtlas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.23

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.62

Atlas

1.23

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 32% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.62

creates per match

1.08

1.37

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.62

Atlas

1.08

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.37

Atlas

1.62

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more

Atlas+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Atlas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

71%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Atlas

75%

Draw or Atlas

54%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

24%

Atlas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

80%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

48%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

22%

Atlas 1+ goals

71%

Atlas 2+ goals

35%

Atlas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

62%

Atlas (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Atlas away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.62 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Atlas defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.62

Atlas attack 1.08 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

46%

level

25%

Atlas scores more

29%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

I. Malcorra

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · M

8.7

Match Events

11'

C. González↳ I. Malcorra

27'

J. Isijara↳ M. Cuero

46'

Anderson Santamaría

46'

B. Mendoza← J. Iturbe

51'

Anderson Santamaría

51'

Anderson Santamaría

55'

B. Vázquez← E. Zaldivar

65'

P. Barrera← A. Mendoza

66'

70'

70'

70'

77'

A. Andrade← J. Angulo

79'

N. Freire

88'

A. Iniestra↳ I. Malcorra

90'

Pablo Jaquez

90+4'

C. VargasOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Atlas

Overview

61%Possession39%

23Total Shots7

7Corners2

12Fouls14

Shots

23Total Shots7

9On Target2

7Off Target3

7Blocked2

10Inside Box2

13Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

381Total Passes241

321Accurate Passes171

84%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1