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U Craiova 1948 vs FC Voluntari — Liga I 2018

U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
FC Voluntari
FC Voluntari
4/14/2023Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 4Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

U Craiova 194845%
×Draw26%
FC Voluntari29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U Craiova 1948
1.48
FC Voluntari
1.15

U Craiova 1948 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 119 away

creates per match

U Craiova 1948
1.43
FC Voluntari
1.01

allows per match

U Craiova 1948
1.29
FC Voluntari
1.54

finishing

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par
FC Voluntari+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U Craiova 1948 ↓

FC Voluntari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

U Craiova 1948 or draw
71%
U Craiova 1948 or FC Voluntari
74%
Draw or FC Voluntari
55%

Winning margin

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
22%
FC Voluntari wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
77%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
43%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
19%
FC Voluntari 1+ goals
68%
FC Voluntari 2+ goals
32%
FC Voluntari 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
60%
FC Voluntari (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U Craiova 1948 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches

FC Voluntari away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.54 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.43 + FC Voluntari defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC Voluntari attack 1.01 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

U Craiova 1948 scores more
45%
level
26%
FC Voluntari scores more
29%

U Craiova 1948 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "U Craiova 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: U Craiova 1948 vs FC Voluntari

U Craiova 1948 and FC Voluntari drew 3-3 in Liga I on April 14, 2023.

The match was played at Complex Sportiv Craiova in Craiova.