Tyumen vs Torpedo Miass — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023
Tyumen score first in only 8% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
Tyumen44%
Torpedo Miass30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tyumen creates 27% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 16 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tyumen ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tyumen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches
Torpedo Miass away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tyumen attack 2.00 + Torpedo Miass defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.41
Torpedo Miass attack 1.00 + Tyumen defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Tyumen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Their last 5 meetings averaged 4.2 goals
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Bryansk
Urozhay
Dinamo Kirov
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Rodina Moskva II
Kaluga
Amkar
Zenit 2
Dinamo Moskva IITorpedo MiassTyumen
Irtysh Omsk
Dinamo Stavropol
Avangard Kursk
MuromIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Tyumen host Torpedo Miass on Saturday, 15 August 2026 at 15:00. The match is part of the Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023/2024 season.
Tyumen vs Torpedo Miass — Match Preview
Tyumen face Torpedo Miass on August 15, 2026 in this Second League A - Fall Season Silver fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Tyumen host Torpedo Miass at Geolog Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.