Txantrea 2–1 Beti Onak: Result & Stats

Txantrea

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Beti Onak

11/11/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 10Instalaciones Deportivas Chantrea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Txantrea48%

×Draw25%

Beti Onak27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TxantreaExpected goals in this matchBeti Onak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.10

Txantrea

1.57

Beti Onak

1.10

Txantrea creates 43% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 109 away

1.63

creates per match

1.13

1.07

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Txantrea

1.63

Beti Onak

1.13

allows per match

Txantrea

1.07

Beti Onak

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Txantrea+0.00on par

Beti Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Txantrea ↓

Beti Onak →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Txantrea or draw

73%

Txantrea or Beti Onak

75%

Draw or Beti Onak

52%

Winning margin

Txantrea wins by 2+

25%

Beti Onak wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Txantrea 1+ goals

79%

Txantrea 2+ goals

46%

Txantrea 3+ goals

21%

Beti Onak 1+ goals

67%

Beti Onak 2+ goals

30%

Beti Onak 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Txantrea (draw refunded)

64%

Beti Onak (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Txantrea at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

Beti Onak away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Txantrea attack 1.63 + Beti Onak defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.57

Beti Onak attack 1.13 + Txantrea defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Txantrea scores more

48%

level

25%

Beti Onak scores more

27%

Txantrea at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Txantrea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff