Twente 0–1 Utrecht: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

Twente

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Utrecht

2/18/2024

Eredivisie · Round 22De Grolsch Veste

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Twente52%

×Draw23%

Utrecht25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TwenteExpected goals in this matchUtrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.21

Twente

1.84

Utrecht

1.21

Twente creates 52% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

1.93

creates per match

1.35

1.07

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Twente

1.93

Utrecht

1.35

allows per match

Twente

1.07

Utrecht

1.75

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

Twente-0.20scores less

Utrecht+0.43scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente ↓

Utrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Twente or draw

75%

Twente or Utrecht

77%

Draw or Utrecht

48%

Winning margin

Twente wins by 2+

29%

Utrecht wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Twente 1+ goals

84%

Twente 2+ goals

55%

Twente 3+ goals

28%

Utrecht 1+ goals

70%

Utrecht 2+ goals

34%

Utrecht 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Twente (draw refunded)

67%

Utrecht (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Twente at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.07 · 22 matches

Utrecht away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.75 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Twente attack 1.93 + Utrecht defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.84

Utrecht attack 1.35 + Twente defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Twente scores more

52%

level

23%

Utrecht scores more

25%

Twente at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Twente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff