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Twente vs PSV Eindhoven — Eredivisie 2018

Twente
Twente
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven
11/25/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 13De Grolsch Veste

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Twente38%
×Draw24%
PSV Eindhoven38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Twente
1.50
PSV Eindhoven
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 27 away

creates per match

Twente
1.93
PSV Eindhoven
1.94

allows per match

Twente
1.07
PSV Eindhoven
1.08

finishing

Twente-0.20scores less
PSV Eindhoven+0.62scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente ↓

PSV Eindhoven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Twente or draw
62%
Twente or PSV Eindhoven
76%
Draw or PSV Eindhoven
62%

Winning margin

Twente wins by 2+
18%
PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Twente 1+ goals
78%
Twente 2+ goals
44%
Twente 3+ goals
19%
PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals
78%
PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals
44%
PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Twente (draw refunded)
50%
PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Twente at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.07 · 22 matches

PSV Eindhoven away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.08 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Twente attack 1.93 + PSV Eindhoven defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.50

PSV Eindhoven attack 1.94 + Twente defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Twente scores more
38%
level
24%
PSV Eindhoven scores more
38%

Twente at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Twente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Twente vs PSV Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven beat Twente 3-0 in Eredivisie on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at De Grolsch Veste in Enschede.