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Twente vs NEC Nijmegen — Eredivisie 2018

Twente
Twente
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen
11/11/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 12De Grolsch Veste

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Twente52%
×Draw23%
NEC Nijmegen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Twente
1.83
NEC Nijmegen
1.22

Twente creates 50% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 20 away

creates per match

Twente
1.93
NEC Nijmegen
1.36

allows per match

Twente
1.07
NEC Nijmegen
1.74

finishing

Twente-0.20scores less
NEC Nijmegen+0.24scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente ↓

NEC Nijmegen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Twente or draw
75%
Twente or NEC Nijmegen
77%
Draw or NEC Nijmegen
48%

Winning margin

Twente wins by 2+
29%
NEC Nijmegen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Twente 1+ goals
84%
Twente 2+ goals
54%
Twente 3+ goals
28%
NEC Nijmegen 1+ goals
70%
NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals
34%
NEC Nijmegen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Twente (draw refunded)
67%
NEC Nijmegen (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Twente at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.07 · 22 matches

NEC Nijmegen away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.74 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Twente attack 1.93 + NEC Nijmegen defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.83

NEC Nijmegen attack 1.36 + Twente defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Twente scores more
52%
level
23%
NEC Nijmegen scores more
25%

Twente at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Twente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Twente 3–3 NEC Nijmegen

Twente and NEC Nijmegen drew 3-3 in Eredivisie on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at De Grolsch Veste in Enschede.