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Twente vs GO Ahead Eagles — Eredivisie 2018

Twente
Twente
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
GO Ahead Eagles
GO Ahead Eagles
2/25/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 23De Grolsch Veste

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Twente63%
×Draw20%
GO Ahead Eagles17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Twente
2.21
GO Ahead Eagles
1.06

Twente creates 108% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 17 away

creates per match

Twente
1.93
GO Ahead Eagles
1.06

allows per match

Twente
1.07
GO Ahead Eagles
2.49

finishing

Twente-0.20scores less
GO Ahead Eagles+0.29scores more

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente ↓

GO Ahead Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Twente or draw
83%
Twente or GO Ahead Eagles
80%
Draw or GO Ahead Eagles
37%

Winning margin

Twente wins by 2+
40%
GO Ahead Eagles wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Twente 1+ goals
89%
Twente 2+ goals
65%
Twente 3+ goals
38%
GO Ahead Eagles 1+ goals
65%
GO Ahead Eagles 2+ goals
29%
GO Ahead Eagles 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Twente (draw refunded)
79%
GO Ahead Eagles (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Twente at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.07 · 22 matches

GO Ahead Eagles away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.49 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Twente attack 1.93 + GO Ahead Eagles defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.21

GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.06 + Twente defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Twente scores more
63%
level
20%
GO Ahead Eagles scores more
17%

Twente at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Twente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Twente vs GO Ahead Eagles

Twente beat GO Ahead Eagles 3-0 in Eredivisie on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at De Grolsch Veste in Enschede.