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Twente / Heracles U21 vs Feyenoord U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Twente / Heracles U21
Twente / Heracles U21
FT
0 – 1
Feyenoord U21
Feyenoord U21
1/28/2023U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 1FC Twente-trainingscentrum TC veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Twente / Heracles U2137%
×Draw22%
Feyenoord U2141%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Twente / Heracles U21
1.72
Feyenoord U21
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 69 away

creates per match

Twente / Heracles U21
1.85
Feyenoord U21
1.99

allows per match

Twente / Heracles U21
1.63
Feyenoord U21
1.58

finishing

Twente / Heracles U21+0.00on par
Feyenoord U21+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente / Heracles U21 ↓

Feyenoord U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Twente / Heracles U21 or draw
59%
Twente / Heracles U21 or Feyenoord U21
78%
Draw or Feyenoord U21
63%

Winning margin

Twente / Heracles U21 wins by 2+
19%
Feyenoord U21 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Twente / Heracles U21 1+ goals
82%
Twente / Heracles U21 2+ goals
51%
Twente / Heracles U21 3+ goals
25%
Feyenoord U21 1+ goals
84%
Feyenoord U21 2+ goals
54%
Feyenoord U21 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Twente / Heracles U21 (draw refunded)
48%
Feyenoord U21 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Twente / Heracles U21 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 59 matches

Feyenoord U21 away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Twente / Heracles U21 attack 1.85 + Feyenoord U21 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.72

Feyenoord U21 attack 1.99 + Twente / Heracles U21 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Twente / Heracles U21 scores more
37%
level
22%
Feyenoord U21 scores more
41%

Feyenoord U21 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Feyenoord U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U21 Divisie 1: Twente / Heracles U21 0–1 Feyenoord U21

Feyenoord U21 beat Twente / Heracles U21 1-0 in U21 Divisie 1 on January 28, 2023.

The match was played at FC Twente-trainingscentrum TC veld 1 in Hengelo.