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Tvååker vs Trelleborg — Ettan - Södra 2019

Tvååker
Tvååker
Preview
11:00
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
9/20/2026Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 23
56%
Trelleborg
model favours
20%24%56%

Trelleborg score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tvååker20%
×Draw24%
Trelleborg56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tvååker
0.93
Trelleborg
1.72

Trelleborg creates 85% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tvååker
1.29
Trelleborg
2.29

allows per match

Tvååker
1.15
Trelleborg
0.57

finishing

Tvååker+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tvååker ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tvååker or draw
44%
Tvååker or Trelleborg
76%
Draw or Trelleborg
80%

Winning margin

Tvååker wins by 2+
7%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Tvååker 1+ goals
61%
Tvååker 2+ goals
24%
Tvååker 3+ goals
7%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
82%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
51%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Tvååker (draw refunded)
27%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tvååker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.15 · 97 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tvååker attack 1.29 + Trelleborg defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.93

Trelleborg attack 2.29 + Tvååker defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tvååker scores more
20%
level
24%
Trelleborg scores more
56%

Trelleborg at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 3 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tvååker
LWWD
Trelleborg
DWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tvååker vs Trelleborg — Match Preview

Tvååker face Trelleborg on September 20, 2026 in this Ettan - Södra fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.