Tusker 1–1 Kariobangi Sharks: Result & Stats

Tusker

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kariobangi Sharks

D. Majak 78'

T. Otieno 49'

2/4/2023

FKF Premier League · Round 12Ruaraka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Tusker42%

×Draw30%

Kariobangi Sharks28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuskerExpected goals in this matchKariobangi Sharks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.88

Tusker

1.16

Kariobangi Sharks

0.88

Tusker creates 32% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 139 away

1.29

creates per match

1.04

0.72

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Tusker

1.29

Kariobangi Sharks

1.04

allows per match

Tusker

0.72

Kariobangi Sharks

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tusker+0.00on par

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tusker ↓

Kariobangi Sharks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tusker or draw

72%

Tusker or Kariobangi Sharks

70%

Draw or Kariobangi Sharks

58%

Winning margin

Tusker wins by 2+

18%

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tusker 1+ goals

69%

Tusker 2+ goals

32%

Tusker 3+ goals

11%

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals

59%

Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals

22%

Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tusker (draw refunded)

60%

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tusker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 143 matches

Kariobangi Sharks away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.02 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tusker attack 1.29 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.16

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.04 + Tusker defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tusker scores more

42%

level

30%

Kariobangi Sharks scores more

28%

Tusker at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

T. Otieno

78'

D. Majak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff