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TuS Koblenz vs Mülheim-Kärlich — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
FT
2 – 1
Mülheim-Kärlich
Mülheim-Kärlich
9/20/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 4Stadion Oberwerth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

TuS Koblenz61%
×Draw22%
Mülheim-Kärlich17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Koblenz
1.92
Mülheim-Kärlich
0.90

TuS Koblenz creates 113% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 24 away

creates per match

TuS Koblenz
1.97
Mülheim-Kärlich
0.83

allows per match

TuS Koblenz
0.97
Mülheim-Kärlich
1.88

finishing

TuS Koblenz+0.00on par
Mülheim-Kärlich+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Koblenz ↓

Mülheim-Kärlich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

TuS Koblenz or draw
83%
TuS Koblenz or Mülheim-Kärlich
78%
Draw or Mülheim-Kärlich
39%

Winning margin

TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
36%
Mülheim-Kärlich wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
85%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
57%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
30%
Mülheim-Kärlich 1+ goals
59%
Mülheim-Kärlich 2+ goals
23%
Mülheim-Kärlich 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
78%
Mülheim-Kärlich (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Koblenz at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.97 · 59 matches

Mülheim-Kärlich away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Koblenz attack 1.97 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.92

Mülheim-Kärlich attack 0.83 + TuS Koblenz defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

TuS Koblenz scores more
61%
level
22%
Mülheim-Kärlich scores more
17%

TuS Koblenz at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuS Koblenz vs Mülheim-Kärlich

TuS Koblenz beat Mülheim-Kärlich 2-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Oberwerth in Koblenz.