TuS Heiligenkreuz 1–2 Lafnitz II: Result & Stats

TuS Heiligenkreuz

FT

1 – 2

Lafnitz II

9/18/2020

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 5Sportplatz TuS Heiligenkreuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz41%

×Draw22%

Lafnitz II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuS HeiligenkreuzExpected goals in this matchLafnitz II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.71

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.83

Lafnitz II

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 75 away

1.85

creates per match

1.84

1.57

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.85

Lafnitz II

1.84

allows per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.57

Lafnitz II

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Lafnitz II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Heiligenkreuz ↓

Lafnitz II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

TuS Heiligenkreuz or draw

64%

TuS Heiligenkreuz or Lafnitz II

78%

Draw or Lafnitz II

59%

Winning margin

TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+

22%

Lafnitz II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals

84%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals

54%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals

28%

Lafnitz II 1+ goals

82%

Lafnitz II 2+ goals

51%

Lafnitz II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)

53%

Lafnitz II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Heiligenkreuz at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.57 · 74 matches

Lafnitz II away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.85 + Lafnitz II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.83

Lafnitz II attack 1.84 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more

41%

level

22%

Lafnitz II scores more

36%

TuS Heiligenkreuz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "TuS Heiligenkreuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff