Tus Dassendorf 1–1 Paloma: Result & Stats

Tus Dassendorf

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Paloma

K. Kurczynski 5'

M. Blunck 39'

11/4/2023

Oberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 16Sportplatz Dassendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tus Dassendorf64%

×Draw18%

Paloma18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tus DassendorfExpected goals in this matchPaloma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.22

Tus Dassendorf

2.46

Paloma

1.22

Tus Dassendorf creates 102% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 57 away

3.00

creates per match

1.86

0.57

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Tus Dassendorf

3.00

Paloma

1.86

allows per match

Tus Dassendorf

0.57

Paloma

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tus Dassendorf+0.00on par

Paloma+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tus Dassendorf ↓

Paloma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Tus Dassendorf or draw

82%

Tus Dassendorf or Paloma

82%

Draw or Paloma

36%

Winning margin

Tus Dassendorf wins by 2+

42%

Paloma wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tus Dassendorf 1+ goals

91%

Tus Dassendorf 2+ goals

70%

Tus Dassendorf 3+ goals

44%

Paloma 1+ goals

70%

Paloma 2+ goals

34%

Paloma 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tus Dassendorf (draw refunded)

78%

Paloma (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tus Dassendorf at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Paloma away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.91 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tus Dassendorf attack 3.00 + Paloma defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.46

Paloma attack 1.86 + Tus Dassendorf defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Tus Dassendorf scores more

64%

level

18%

Paloma scores more

18%

Tus Dassendorf at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Tus Dassendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

K. Kurczynski

39'

M. Blunck

90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff