Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Turris vs Trastevere — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Turris
Turris
PST
13:00
Trastevere
Trastevere
4/26/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 33Stadio Amerigo Liguori (Torre del Greco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Turris62%
×Draw19%
Trastevere19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turris
2.29
Trastevere
1.19

Turris creates 92% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 64 away

creates per match

Turris
2.92
Trastevere
1.30

allows per match

Turris
1.08
Trastevere
1.66

finishing

Turris+0.00on par
Trastevere+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turris ↓

Trastevere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Turris or draw
81%
Turris or Trastevere
81%
Draw or Trastevere
38%

Winning margin

Turris wins by 2+
39%
Trastevere wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Turris 1+ goals
90%
Turris 2+ goals
66%
Turris 3+ goals
40%
Trastevere 1+ goals
70%
Trastevere 2+ goals
33%
Trastevere 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Turris (draw refunded)
77%
Trastevere (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turris at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Trastevere away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.66 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turris attack 2.92 + Trastevere defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.29

Trastevere attack 1.30 + Turris defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Turris scores more
62%
level
19%
Trastevere scores more
19%

Turris at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Turris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Turris face Trastevere (Serie D - Girone G)

Serie D - Girone G returns with Turris hosting Trastevere. Match starts April 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Turris host Trastevere at Stadio Amerigo Liguori (Torre del Greco).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.