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Turris vs Ostia Mare — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Turris
Turris
PST
13:30
Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
3/22/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 28Stadio Amerigo Liguori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Turris53%
×Draw21%
Ostia Mare25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turris
2.04
Ostia Mare
1.34

Turris creates 52% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 48 away

creates per match

Turris
2.92
Ostia Mare
1.60

allows per match

Turris
1.08
Ostia Mare
1.15

finishing

Turris+0.00on par
Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turris ↓

Ostia Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Turris or draw
75%
Turris or Ostia Mare
79%
Draw or Ostia Mare
47%

Winning margin

Turris wins by 2+
31%
Ostia Mare wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Turris 1+ goals
87%
Turris 2+ goals
60%
Turris 3+ goals
33%
Ostia Mare 1+ goals
74%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
39%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Turris (draw refunded)
68%
Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turris at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turris attack 2.92 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 2.04

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Turris defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Turris scores more
53%
level
21%
Ostia Mare scores more
25%

Turris at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Turris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Turris vs Ostia Mare — Match Preview

Turris face Ostia Mare on March 22, 2020 in this Serie D - Girone G fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Turris host Ostia Mare at Stadio Amerigo Liguori.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.