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Turrialba Fc vs Limón Black Star — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Turrialba Fc
Turrialba Fc
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Limón Black Star
Limón Black Star
8/13/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 4Estadio Rafael Ángel Camacho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Turrialba Fc30%
×Draw25%
Limón Black Star45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turrialba Fc
1.21
Limón Black Star
1.53

Limón Black Star creates 26% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 36 away

creates per match

Turrialba Fc
1.20
Limón Black Star
1.33

allows per match

Turrialba Fc
1.73
Limón Black Star
1.22

finishing

Turrialba Fc+0.00on par
Limón Black Star+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turrialba Fc ↓

Limón Black Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Turrialba Fc or draw
55%
Turrialba Fc or Limón Black Star
75%
Draw or Limón Black Star
70%

Winning margin

Turrialba Fc wins by 2+
12%
Limón Black Star wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Turrialba Fc 1+ goals
70%
Turrialba Fc 2+ goals
34%
Turrialba Fc 3+ goals
12%
Limón Black Star 1+ goals
78%
Limón Black Star 2+ goals
45%
Limón Black Star 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)
40%
Limón Black Star (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turrialba Fc at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 101 matches

Limón Black Star away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turrialba Fc attack 1.20 + Limón Black Star defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Limón Black Star attack 1.33 + Turrialba Fc defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Turrialba Fc scores more
30%
level
25%
Limón Black Star scores more
45%

Limón Black Star at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Limón Black Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turrialba Fc vs Limón Black Star

Turrialba Fc and Limón Black Star drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Ángel Camacho in Turrialba.