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Turrialba Fc vs Escazucena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Turrialba Fc
Turrialba Fc
FT
3 – 3
Escazucena
Escazucena
8/4/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 2Estadio Rafael Ángel Camacho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Turrialba Fc36%
×Draw25%
Escazucena39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turrialba Fc
1.45
Escazucena
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 78 away

creates per match

Turrialba Fc
1.21
Escazucena
1.28

allows per match

Turrialba Fc
1.74
Escazucena
1.69

finishing

Turrialba Fc+0.00on par
Escazucena+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turrialba Fc ↓

Escazucena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Turrialba Fc or draw
61%
Turrialba Fc or Escazucena
75%
Draw or Escazucena
64%

Winning margin

Turrialba Fc wins by 2+
17%
Escazucena wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Turrialba Fc 1+ goals
77%
Turrialba Fc 2+ goals
42%
Turrialba Fc 3+ goals
18%
Escazucena 1+ goals
78%
Escazucena 2+ goals
44%
Escazucena 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)
48%
Escazucena (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turrialba Fc at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.74 · 100 matches

Escazucena away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.69 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turrialba Fc attack 1.21 + Escazucena defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.45

Escazucena attack 1.28 + Turrialba Fc defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Turrialba Fc scores more
36%
level
25%
Escazucena scores more
39%

Escazucena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Escazucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Turrialba Fc 3–3 Escazucena

Turrialba Fc and Escazucena drew 3-3 in Liga de Ascenso on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Ángel Camacho in Turrialba.