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Turrialba Fc vs Aserri FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Turrialba Fc
Turrialba Fc
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Aserri FC
Aserri FC
2/1/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 5Estadio Rafael Ángel Camacho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Turrialba Fc38%
×Draw25%
Aserri FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turrialba Fc
1.44
Aserri FC
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 106 away

creates per match

Turrialba Fc
1.20
Aserri FC
1.07

allows per match

Turrialba Fc
1.73
Aserri FC
1.68

finishing

Turrialba Fc+0.00on par
Aserri FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turrialba Fc ↓

Aserri FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Turrialba Fc or draw
63%
Turrialba Fc or Aserri FC
75%
Draw or Aserri FC
62%

Winning margin

Turrialba Fc wins by 2+
18%
Aserri FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Turrialba Fc 1+ goals
76%
Turrialba Fc 2+ goals
42%
Turrialba Fc 3+ goals
18%
Aserri FC 1+ goals
75%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
41%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)
51%
Aserri FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turrialba Fc at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 101 matches

Aserri FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turrialba Fc attack 1.20 + Aserri FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Aserri FC attack 1.07 + Turrialba Fc defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Turrialba Fc scores more
38%
level
25%
Aserri FC scores more
37%

Turrialba Fc at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Turrialba Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turrialba Fc vs Aserri FC

Turrialba Fc and Aserri FC drew 2-2 in Liga de Ascenso on February 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Ángel Camacho in Turrialba.