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Turku PS vs Lahti — Veikkausliiga 2018

Turku PS
Turku PS
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lahti
Lahti
7/25/2020VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 5Veritas Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Turku PS47%
×Draw26%
Lahti26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turku PS
1.46
Lahti
1.02

Turku PS creates 43% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 101 away

creates per match

Turku PS
1.35
Lahti
0.93

allows per match

Turku PS
1.11
Lahti
1.56

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par
Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

Lahti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw
74%
Turku PS or Lahti
74%
Draw or Lahti
53%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+
23%
Lahti wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals
77%
Turku PS 2+ goals
43%
Turku PS 3+ goals
18%
Lahti 1+ goals
64%
Lahti 2+ goals
27%
Lahti 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)
64%
Lahti (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Lahti away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.56 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 1.35 + Lahti defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lahti attack 0.93 + Turku PS defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Turku PS scores more
47%
level
26%
Lahti scores more
26%

Turku PS at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Turku PS 1 – 3 Lahti

Lahti beat Turku PS 3-1 in Veikkausliiga on July 25, 2020.

The match was played at Veritas Stadion in Åbo.