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Turku PS vs HIFK Helsinki — Suomen Cup 2018

Turku PS
Turku PS
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
2/7/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 3LähiTapiola-areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Turku PS26%
×Draw24%
HIFK Helsinki50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turku PS
1.21
HIFK Helsinki
1.75

HIFK Helsinki creates 45% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 23 away

creates per match

Turku PS
1.25
HIFK Helsinki
2.91

allows per match

Turku PS
0.58
HIFK Helsinki
1.17

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par
HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

HIFK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw
50%
Turku PS or HIFK Helsinki
76%
Draw or HIFK Helsinki
74%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+
11%
HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals
70%
Turku PS 2+ goals
34%
Turku PS 3+ goals
12%
HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
83%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
52%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)
35%
HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

HIFK Helsinki away — creates 2.91, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 1.25 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

HIFK Helsinki attack 2.91 + Turku PS defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Turku PS scores more
26%
level
24%
HIFK Helsinki scores more
50%

HIFK Helsinki at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "HIFK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turku PS vs HIFK Helsinki

Turku PS beat HIFK Helsinki 1-0 in Suomen Cup on February 7, 2020.

The match was played at LähiTapiola-areena in Åbo.