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Türkiye vs Belgium — UEFA Nations League 2018

Türkiye
Türkiye
Preview
17:00
Belgium
Belgium
11/12/2026UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · 5
Big match
50%
Türkiye
model favours
50%24%26%

Belgium score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Türkiye50%
×Draw24%
Belgium26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkiye
1.69
Belgium
1.16

Türkiye creates 46% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Türkiye
1.83
Belgium
1.23

allows per match

Türkiye
1.08
Belgium
1.54

finishing

Türkiye+0.00on par
Belgium+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkiye ↓

Belgium →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Türkiye or draw
74%
Türkiye or Belgium
76%
Draw or Belgium
50%

Winning margin

Türkiye wins by 2+
27%
Belgium wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Türkiye 1+ goals
82%
Türkiye 2+ goals
50%
Türkiye 3+ goals
24%
Belgium 1+ goals
69%
Belgium 2+ goals
32%
Belgium 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Türkiye (draw refunded)
65%
Belgium (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkiye at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Belgium away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkiye attack 1.83 + Belgium defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.69

Belgium attack 1.23 + Türkiye defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Türkiye scores more
50%
level
24%
Belgium scores more
26%

Türkiye at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Türkiye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Türkiye 2 vs Belgium 3
  • Türkiye and Belgium have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Türkiye
WLLWW
Belgium
LWDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye face Belgium (UEFA Nations League)

UEFA Nations League returns with Türkiye hosting Belgium. Match starts November 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.