Turan 1–1 Neftchi Baku: Result & Stats

Turan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Neftchi Baku

2/24/2024

Premyer Liqa · Round 24Şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Turan35%

×Draw27%

Neftchi Baku39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuranExpected goals in this matchNeftchi Baku

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.32

Turan

1.23

Neftchi Baku

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 108 away

1.38

creates per match

1.38

1.27

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Turan

1.38

Neftchi Baku

1.38

allows per match

Turan

1.27

Neftchi Baku

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turan+0.00on par

Neftchi Baku+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turan ↓

Neftchi Baku →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Turan or draw

61%

Turan or Neftchi Baku

73%

Draw or Neftchi Baku

65%

Winning margin

Turan wins by 2+

15%

Neftchi Baku wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Turan 1+ goals

71%

Turan 2+ goals

35%

Turan 3+ goals

13%

Neftchi Baku 1+ goals

73%

Neftchi Baku 2+ goals

38%

Neftchi Baku 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Turan (draw refunded)

47%

Neftchi Baku (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turan at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.27 · 73 matches

Neftchi Baku away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.09 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turan attack 1.38 + Neftchi Baku defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Neftchi Baku attack 1.38 + Turan defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Turan scores more

35%

level

27%

Neftchi Baku scores more

39%

Neftchi Baku at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Neftchi Baku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff