Tupy vs Estrela do Norte — Capixaba B 2027
Capixaba B · Round 4
Top-of-the-table clash — Tupy 4 vs Estrela do Norte 2
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Tupy29%Estrela do Norte49%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Estrela do Norte creates 32% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over66
- Under34
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes66
- No34
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tupy ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tupy at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches
Estrela do Norte away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tupy attack 2.17 + Estrela do Norte defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.48
Estrela do Norte attack 2.40 + Tupy defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.95
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Estrela do Norte at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Estrela do Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Tupy and Estrela do Norte have never met before
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
No previous meetings between these teams
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Tupy host Estrela do Norte on Saturday, 25 July 2026 at 19:00. The match is part of the Capixaba B 2027/2028 season.
Tupy vs Estrela do Norte — Match Preview
Tupy face Estrela do Norte on July 25, 2026 in this Capixaba B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.