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Tulsa Roughnecks vs Sacramento Republic — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic
10/6/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 57ONEOK Field (Tulsa, Oklahoma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks37%
×Draw26%
Sacramento Republic37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.30
Sacramento Republic
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 132 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
Sacramento Republic
1.19

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
Sacramento Republic
1.16

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
Sacramento Republic+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Sacramento Republic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
63%
Tulsa Roughnecks or Sacramento Republic
74%
Draw or Sacramento Republic
63%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
16%
Sacramento Republic wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
73%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
37%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
14%
Sacramento Republic 1+ goals
73%
Sacramento Republic 2+ goals
37%
Sacramento Republic 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
50%
Sacramento Republic (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Sacramento Republic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Sacramento Republic defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sacramento Republic attack 1.19 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
37%
level
26%
Sacramento Republic scores more
37%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Tulsa Roughnecks 2–3 Sacramento Republic

Sacramento Republic beat Tulsa Roughnecks 3-2 in USL Championship on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at ONEOK Field (Tulsa, Oklahoma).