Tulsa Roughnecks 0–5 Orange County SC

Tulsa Roughnecks

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Orange County SC

3/31/2018

USL Championship · Round 5ONEOK Field (Tulsa, Oklahoma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks40%

×Draw25%

Orange County SC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tulsa RoughnecksExpected goals in this matchOrange County SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.39

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.49

Orange County SC

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 138 away

1.45

creates per match

1.35

1.42

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.45

Orange County SC

1.35

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.42

Orange County SC

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Orange County SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Orange County SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw

65%

Tulsa Roughnecks or Orange County SC

75%

Draw or Orange County SC

60%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+

19%

Orange County SC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals

77%

Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals

44%

Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals

19%

Orange County SC 1+ goals

75%

Orange County SC 2+ goals

40%

Orange County SC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)

53%

Orange County SC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Orange County SC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.53 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Orange County SC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.49

Orange County SC attack 1.35 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more

40%

level

25%

Orange County SC scores more

35%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff