Tulsa Roughnecks 2–0 Monterey Bay: Result & Stats

Tulsa Roughnecks

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Monterey Bay

10/13/2022

USL Championship · Round 45ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks49%

×Draw25%

Monterey Bay26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tulsa RoughnecksExpected goals in this matchMonterey Bay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.11

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.62

Monterey Bay

1.11

Tulsa Roughnecks creates 46% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 73 away

1.45

creates per match

0.81

1.42

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.45

Monterey Bay

0.81

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.42

Monterey Bay

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Monterey Bay+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Monterey Bay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw

74%

Tulsa Roughnecks or Monterey Bay

75%

Draw or Monterey Bay

51%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+

26%

Monterey Bay wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals

80%

Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals

48%

Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals

22%

Monterey Bay 1+ goals

67%

Monterey Bay 2+ goals

30%

Monterey Bay 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)

65%

Monterey Bay (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Monterey Bay away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.79 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Monterey Bay defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.62

Monterey Bay attack 0.81 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more

49%

level

25%

Monterey Bay scores more

26%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff