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Tulsa Roughnecks vs Las Vegas Lights — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Las Vegas Lights
Las Vegas Lights
8/29/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 46ONEOK Field (Tulsa, Oklahoma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks50%
×Draw23%
Las Vegas Lights27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.78
Las Vegas Lights
1.25

Tulsa Roughnecks creates 42% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 133 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
Las Vegas Lights
1.09

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
Las Vegas Lights
2.11

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
Las Vegas Lights+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Las Vegas Lights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
73%
Tulsa Roughnecks or Las Vegas Lights
77%
Draw or Las Vegas Lights
50%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
27%
Las Vegas Lights wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
83%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
53%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
26%
Las Vegas Lights 1+ goals
71%
Las Vegas Lights 2+ goals
36%
Las Vegas Lights 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
65%
Las Vegas Lights (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Las Vegas Lights away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.11 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Las Vegas Lights defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.78

Las Vegas Lights attack 1.09 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
50%
level
23%
Las Vegas Lights scores more
27%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tulsa Roughnecks vs Las Vegas Lights

Tulsa Roughnecks and Las Vegas Lights drew 1-1 in USL Championship on August 29, 2019.

The match was played at ONEOK Field (Tulsa, Oklahoma).