Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tulsa Roughnecks vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
8/21/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 34ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks43%
×Draw25%
Indy Eleven32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.52
Indy Eleven
1.27

Tulsa Roughnecks creates 20% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 131 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
Indy Eleven
1.13

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
Indy Eleven
1.58

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
68%
Tulsa Roughnecks or Indy Eleven
75%
Draw or Indy Eleven
57%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
21%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
78%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
45%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
20%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
72%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
36%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
58%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.58 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Indy Eleven attack 1.13 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
43%
level
25%
Indy Eleven scores more
32%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Tulsa Roughnecks 1–0 Indy Eleven

Tulsa Roughnecks beat Indy Eleven 1-0 in USL Championship on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at ONEOK Field in Tulsa, Oklahoma.