Tulsa Roughnecks 1–2 Hartford Athletic

Tulsa Roughnecks

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hartford Athletic

8/25/2022

USL Championship · Round 35ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks46%

×Draw24%

Hartford Athletic30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tulsa RoughnecksExpected goals in this matchHartford Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.33

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.69

Hartford Athletic

1.33

Tulsa Roughnecks creates 27% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 113 away

1.45

creates per match

1.25

1.42

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.45

Hartford Athletic

1.25

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.42

Hartford Athletic

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Hartford Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Hartford Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw

70%

Tulsa Roughnecks or Hartford Athletic

76%

Draw or Hartford Athletic

54%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+

24%

Hartford Athletic wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals

82%

Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals

50%

Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals

24%

Hartford Athletic 1+ goals

74%

Hartford Athletic 2+ goals

38%

Hartford Athletic 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)

60%

Hartford Athletic (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Hartford Athletic away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.93 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Hartford Athletic defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hartford Athletic attack 1.25 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more

46%

level

24%

Hartford Athletic scores more

30%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff