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Tulsa Roughnecks vs Colorado Springs — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Colorado Springs
Colorado Springs
4/24/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 9ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks45%
×Draw24%
Colorado Springs31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.64
Colorado Springs
1.32

Tulsa Roughnecks creates 24% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 133 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
Colorado Springs
1.23

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
Colorado Springs
1.82

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
Colorado Springs+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Colorado Springs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
69%
Tulsa Roughnecks or Colorado Springs
76%
Draw or Colorado Springs
55%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
23%
Colorado Springs wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
81%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
49%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
23%
Colorado Springs 1+ goals
73%
Colorado Springs 2+ goals
38%
Colorado Springs 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
59%
Colorado Springs (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Colorado Springs away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.82 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Colorado Springs defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.64

Colorado Springs attack 1.23 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
45%
level
24%
Colorado Springs scores more
31%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Tulsa Roughnecks 0–2 Colorado Springs

Colorado Springs beat Tulsa Roughnecks 2-0 in USL Championship on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at ONEOK Field in Tulsa, Oklahoma.