Tukunnin 3–0 Dynamo Unacob: Result & Stats

Tukunnin

FT

3 – 0

Dynamo Unacob

11/16/2022

Championnat National · Round 2Stade Saka Kina Guézéré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Tukunnin48%

×Draw27%

Dynamo Unacob24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TukunninExpected goals in this matchDynamo Unacob

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.90

Tukunnin

1.39

Dynamo Unacob

0.90

Tukunnin creates 54% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 87 away

1.26

creates per match

0.82

0.98

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Tukunnin

1.26

Dynamo Unacob

0.82

allows per match

Tukunnin

0.98

Dynamo Unacob

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tukunnin+0.00on par

Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tukunnin ↓

Dynamo Unacob →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tukunnin or draw

76%

Tukunnin or Dynamo Unacob

73%

Draw or Dynamo Unacob

52%

Winning margin

Tukunnin wins by 2+

23%

Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tukunnin 1+ goals

75%

Tukunnin 2+ goals

40%

Tukunnin 3+ goals

16%

Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals

59%

Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals

23%

Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tukunnin (draw refunded)

66%

Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tukunnin at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.98 · 87 matches

Dynamo Unacob away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tukunnin attack 1.26 + Dynamo Unacob defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.82 + Tukunnin defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tukunnin scores more

48%

level

27%

Dynamo Unacob scores more

24%

Tukunnin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tukunnin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff