Tuilla 1–2 Real Titánico: Result & Stats

Tuilla

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Titánico

1/15/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Estadio El Candín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Tuilla49%

×Draw25%

Real Titánico26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuillaExpected goals in this matchReal Titánico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.10

Tuilla

1.61

Real Titánico

1.10

Tuilla creates 46% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 97 away

1.39

creates per match

0.92

1.29

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Tuilla

1.39

Real Titánico

0.92

allows per match

Tuilla

1.29

Real Titánico

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tuilla+0.00on par

Real Titánico+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuilla ↓

Real Titánico →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tuilla or draw

74%

Tuilla or Real Titánico

75%

Draw or Real Titánico

51%

Winning margin

Tuilla wins by 2+

26%

Real Titánico wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tuilla 1+ goals

80%

Tuilla 2+ goals

48%

Tuilla 3+ goals

22%

Real Titánico 1+ goals

67%

Real Titánico 2+ goals

30%

Real Titánico 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tuilla (draw refunded)

65%

Real Titánico (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tuilla at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.29 · 112 matches

Real Titánico away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.84 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tuilla attack 1.39 + Real Titánico defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.61

Real Titánico attack 0.92 + Tuilla defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tuilla scores more

49%

level

25%

Real Titánico scores more

26%

Tuilla at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tuilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff