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Tuilla vs Gijón Industrial — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Tuilla
Tuilla
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gijón Industrial
Gijón Industrial
4/11/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio El Candín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Tuilla47%
×Draw25%
Gijón Industrial28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuilla
1.54
Gijón Industrial
1.12

Tuilla creates 38% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 80 away

creates per match

Tuilla
1.39
Gijón Industrial
0.95

allows per match

Tuilla
1.29
Gijón Industrial
1.69

finishing

Tuilla+0.00on par
Gijón Industrial+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuilla ↓

Gijón Industrial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tuilla or draw
72%
Tuilla or Gijón Industrial
75%
Draw or Gijón Industrial
53%

Winning margin

Tuilla wins by 2+
24%
Gijón Industrial wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tuilla 1+ goals
79%
Tuilla 2+ goals
45%
Tuilla 3+ goals
20%
Gijón Industrial 1+ goals
67%
Gijón Industrial 2+ goals
31%
Gijón Industrial 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tuilla (draw refunded)
63%
Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuilla at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.29 · 112 matches

Gijón Industrial away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.69 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuilla attack 1.39 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.54

Gijón Industrial attack 0.95 + Tuilla defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tuilla scores more
47%
level
25%
Gijón Industrial scores more
28%

Tuilla at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tuilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tuilla 2 – 1 Gijón Industrial

Tuilla beat Gijón Industrial 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Candín in Tuilla.