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TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz — Bundesliga 2018

TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
3/10/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Round 22PROfertil ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

TSV Hartberg30%
×Draw25%
Sturm Graz45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSV Hartberg
1.25
Sturm Graz
1.58

Sturm Graz creates 26% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 129 away

creates per match

TSV Hartberg
1.30
Sturm Graz
1.61

allows per match

TSV Hartberg
1.55
Sturm Graz
1.20

finishing

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par
Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Hartberg ↓

Sturm Graz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

TSV Hartberg or draw
55%
TSV Hartberg or Sturm Graz
75%
Draw or Sturm Graz
70%

Winning margin

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+
13%
Sturm Graz wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals
71%
TSV Hartberg 2+ goals
36%
TSV Hartberg 3+ goals
13%
Sturm Graz 1+ goals
79%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
47%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)
40%
Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Hartberg at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 131 matches

Sturm Graz away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.20 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Hartberg attack 1.30 + Sturm Graz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sturm Graz attack 1.61 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

TSV Hartberg scores more
30%
level
25%
Sturm Graz scores more
45%

Sturm Graz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sturm Graz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz

TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz drew 1-1 in Bundesliga on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at PROfertil ARENA in Hartberg.