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TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg — Bundesliga 2018

TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
Preview
16:00
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
2/6/2027BundesligaBundesliga · Round 19Stadion Hartberg
Big match
53%
Red Bull Salzburg
model favours
24%23%53%

Red Bull Salzburg have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

TSV Hartberg24%
×Draw23%
Red Bull Salzburg53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSV Hartberg
1.16
Red Bull Salzburg
1.85

Red Bull Salzburg creates 59% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 127 away

creates per match

TSV Hartberg
1.30
Red Bull Salzburg
2.15

allows per match

TSV Hartberg
1.55
Red Bull Salzburg
1.02

finishing

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par
Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Hartberg ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

TSV Hartberg or draw
47%
TSV Hartberg or Red Bull Salzburg
77%
Draw or Red Bull Salzburg
76%

Winning margin

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+
9%
Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals
69%
TSV Hartberg 2+ goals
32%
TSV Hartberg 3+ goals
11%
Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
84%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
55%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)
31%
Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Hartberg at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 131 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.02 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Hartberg attack 1.30 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.16

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.15 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

TSV Hartberg scores more
24%
level
23%
Red Bull Salzburg scores more
53%

Red Bull Salzburg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 68% of Red Bull Salzburg’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (60% and 68% over 2.5)
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Style contrast — TSV Hartberg play Direct / counter-attacking, Red Bull Salzburg Possession-dominant
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.9 goals
  • 20% of Red Bull Salzburg’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
TSV Hartberg
Direct / counter-attacking
Red Bull Salzburg
Possession-dominant
38%Possession62%
71%Pass accuracy78%
10.3Shots16.6
0.94xGBiggest gap1.95
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
TSV HartbergRed Bull Salzburg

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Avg goals: 3.9BTTS: 80%
3–11–20–01–20–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Hartberg
LWWW
Salzburg
LLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: TSV Hartberg host Red Bull Salzburg

February 6, 2027: TSV Hartberg take on Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

TSV Hartberg host Red Bull Salzburg at Stadion Hartberg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.