TSV Hartberg 1–1 Red Bull Salzburg: Result & Stats

TSV Hartberg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Red Bull Salzburg

11/30/2024

Bundesliga · Round 15PROfertil ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

TSV Hartberg24%

×Draw23%

Red Bull Salzburg53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TSV HartbergExpected goals in this matchRed Bull Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.85

TSV Hartberg

1.16

Red Bull Salzburg

1.85

Red Bull Salzburg creates 59% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 128 away

1.30

creates per match

2.15

1.55

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

TSV Hartberg

1.30

Red Bull Salzburg

2.15

allows per match

TSV Hartberg

1.55

Red Bull Salzburg

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Hartberg ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

TSV Hartberg or draw

47%

TSV Hartberg or Red Bull Salzburg

77%

Draw or Red Bull Salzburg

76%

Winning margin

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+

9%

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals

69%

TSV Hartberg 2+ goals

32%

TSV Hartberg 3+ goals

11%

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

84%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

55%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)

31%

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Hartberg at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 131 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.01 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Hartberg attack 1.30 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.15 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

TSV Hartberg scores more

24%

level

23%

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

53%

Red Bull Salzburg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff