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TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna — Bundesliga 2018

TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna
11/11/2023BundesligaBundesliga · Round 14PROfertil ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

TSV Hartberg35%
×Draw25%
Rapid Vienna41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSV Hartberg
1.39
Rapid Vienna
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 132 away

creates per match

TSV Hartberg
1.30
Rapid Vienna
1.49

allows per match

TSV Hartberg
1.55
Rapid Vienna
1.47

finishing

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par
Rapid Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Hartberg ↓

Rapid Vienna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

TSV Hartberg or draw
59%
TSV Hartberg or Rapid Vienna
75%
Draw or Rapid Vienna
65%

Winning margin

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+
16%
Rapid Vienna wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals
75%
TSV Hartberg 2+ goals
40%
TSV Hartberg 3+ goals
16%
Rapid Vienna 1+ goals
78%
Rapid Vienna 2+ goals
45%
Rapid Vienna 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)
46%
Rapid Vienna (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Hartberg at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 131 matches

Rapid Vienna away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Hartberg attack 1.30 + Rapid Vienna defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Rapid Vienna attack 1.49 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

TSV Hartberg scores more
35%
level
25%
Rapid Vienna scores more
41%

Rapid Vienna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rapid Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna

TSV Hartberg beat Rapid Vienna 1-0 in Bundesliga on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at PROfertil ARENA in Hartberg.