Tshinkunku 0–2 Sanga Balende: Result & Stats

Tshinkunku

FT

0 – 2

Sanga Balende

11/22/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tshinkunku37%

×Draw32%

Sanga Balende30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TshinkunkuExpected goals in this matchSanga Balende

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.85

Tshinkunku

0.98

Sanga Balende

0.85

Tshinkunku creates 15% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 84 away

0.56

creates per match

0.63

1.07

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Tshinkunku

0.56

Sanga Balende

0.63

allows per match

Tshinkunku

1.07

Sanga Balende

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tshinkunku+0.00on par

Sanga Balende+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tshinkunku ↓

Sanga Balende →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Tshinkunku or draw

70%

Tshinkunku or Sanga Balende

68%

Draw or Sanga Balende

63%

Winning margin

Tshinkunku wins by 2+

14%

Sanga Balende wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tshinkunku 1+ goals

62%

Tshinkunku 2+ goals

26%

Tshinkunku 3+ goals

8%

Sanga Balende 1+ goals

57%

Sanga Balende 2+ goals

21%

Sanga Balende 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tshinkunku (draw refunded)

55%

Sanga Balende (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tshinkunku at home — creates 0.56, concedes 1.07 · 43 matches

Sanga Balende away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tshinkunku attack 0.56 + Sanga Balende defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.98

Sanga Balende attack 0.63 + Tshinkunku defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tshinkunku scores more

37%

level

32%

Sanga Balende scores more

30%

Tshinkunku at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tshinkunku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff