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Tshinkunku vs Lubumbashi Sport — Ligue 1 2019

Tshinkunku
Tshinkunku
FT
0 – 3
Lubumbashi Sport
Lubumbashi Sport
9/7/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade des Jeunes de Katoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tshinkunku36%
×Draw32%
Lubumbashi Sport32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tshinkunku
1.00
Lubumbashi Sport
0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 85 away

creates per match

Tshinkunku
0.56
Lubumbashi Sport
0.76

allows per match

Tshinkunku
1.07
Lubumbashi Sport
1.45

finishing

Tshinkunku+0.00on par
Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tshinkunku ↓

Lubumbashi Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tshinkunku or draw
68%
Tshinkunku or Lubumbashi Sport
68%
Draw or Lubumbashi Sport
64%

Winning margin

Tshinkunku wins by 2+
14%
Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tshinkunku 1+ goals
63%
Tshinkunku 2+ goals
26%
Tshinkunku 3+ goals
8%
Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals
60%
Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals
23%
Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tshinkunku (draw refunded)
53%
Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tshinkunku at home — creates 0.56, concedes 1.07 · 43 matches

Lubumbashi Sport away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.45 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tshinkunku attack 0.56 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.00

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.76 + Tshinkunku defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tshinkunku scores more
36%
level
32%
Lubumbashi Sport scores more
32%

Tshinkunku at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tshinkunku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tshinkunku vs Lubumbashi Sport

Lubumbashi Sport beat Tshinkunku 3-0 in Ligue 1 on September 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stade des Jeunes de Katoka in Kananga.