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TSC Backa Topola vs OFK Vršac — Prva Liga 2018

TSC Backa Topola
TSC Backa Topola
Preview
16:00
OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
8/1/2026Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 1TSC Arena
64%
TSC Backa Topola
model favours
64%22%14%
1–0
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

TSC Backa Topola64%
×Draw22%
OFK Vršac14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSC Backa Topola
1.85
OFK Vršac
0.71

TSC Backa Topola creates 161% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 73 away

creates per match

TSC Backa Topola
2.37
OFK Vršac
0.89

allows per match

TSC Backa Topola
0.53
OFK Vršac
1.34

finishing

TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par
OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSC Backa Topola ↓

OFK Vršac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

TSC Backa Topola or draw
86%
TSC Backa Topola or OFK Vršac
78%
Draw or OFK Vršac
36%

Winning margin

TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+
38%
OFK Vršac wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals
84%
TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals
55%
TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals
28%
OFK Vršac 1+ goals
51%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
16%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)
82%
OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSC Backa Topola at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

OFK Vršac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSC Backa Topola attack 2.37 + OFK Vršac defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.85

OFK Vršac attack 0.89 + TSC Backa Topola defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

TSC Backa Topola scores more
64%
level
22%
OFK Vršac scores more
14%

TSC Backa Topola at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Topola
LDLWD
Vršac
WLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TSC Backa Topola face OFK Vršac (Prva Liga)

Prva Liga returns with TSC Backa Topola hosting OFK Vršac. Match starts August 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

TSC Backa Topola host OFK Vršac at TSC Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.