Trujillo 2–3 Jerez: Result & Stats

Trujillo

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Jerez

2/7/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 16Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Trujillo42%

×Draw27%

Jerez31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrujilloExpected goals in this matchJerez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.15

Trujillo

1.38

Jerez

1.15

Trujillo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 107 away

1.21

creates per match

1.15

1.16

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Trujillo

1.21

Jerez

1.15

allows per match

Trujillo

1.16

Jerez

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trujillo+0.00on par

Jerez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trujillo ↓

Jerez →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Trujillo or draw

69%

Trujillo or Jerez

73%

Draw or Jerez

58%

Winning margin

Trujillo wins by 2+

20%

Jerez wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Trujillo 1+ goals

75%

Trujillo 2+ goals

40%

Trujillo 3+ goals

16%

Jerez 1+ goals

68%

Jerez 2+ goals

32%

Jerez 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Trujillo (draw refunded)

57%

Jerez (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Trujillo at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.16 · 94 matches

Jerez away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Trujillo attack 1.21 + Jerez defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Jerez attack 1.15 + Trujillo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Trujillo scores more

42%

level

27%

Jerez scores more

31%

Trujillo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Trujillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trujillo vs Jerez

Jerez beat Trujillo 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana in Trujillo.

Trujillo vs Jerez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Trujillo vs Jerez