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Trujillo vs Diocesano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Trujillo
Trujillo
CANC
00:00
Diocesano
Diocesano
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 35Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Trujillo37%
×Draw27%
Diocesano37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trujillo
1.29
Diocesano
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 93 away

creates per match

Trujillo
1.21
Diocesano
1.42

allows per match

Trujillo
1.16
Diocesano
1.38

finishing

Trujillo+0.00on par
Diocesano+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trujillo ↓

Diocesano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Trujillo or draw
63%
Trujillo or Diocesano
73%
Draw or Diocesano
63%

Winning margin

Trujillo wins by 2+
16%
Diocesano wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Trujillo 1+ goals
72%
Trujillo 2+ goals
37%
Trujillo 3+ goals
14%
Diocesano 1+ goals
72%
Diocesano 2+ goals
37%
Diocesano 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Trujillo (draw refunded)
50%
Diocesano (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trujillo at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.16 · 94 matches

Diocesano away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trujillo attack 1.21 + Diocesano defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Diocesano attack 1.42 + Trujillo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Trujillo scores more
37%
level
27%
Diocesano scores more
37%

Trujillo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Trujillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Trujillo host Diocesano

April 26, 2020: Trujillo take on Diocesano in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Trujillo host Diocesano at Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.